The Pokémon card market is at a critical crossroads. While collectors are riding high on hype and fresh product releases, troubling signs suggest we may be heading for a significant correction—or even a collapse—in the next five years. With over 10.2 billion Pokémon cards printed in 2024 alone, the sheer volume flooding the market is raising serious questions about sustainability.
A Staggering Statistic Few Are Talking About
According to figures released by The Pokémon Company and reported by PokéBeach, 10.2 billion cards were produced between March 2024 and March 2025. While that’s technically a decrease from the 11.9 billion cards printed the year prior, the number is still extraordinary.
And here’s the thing—many fans were quick to point out the drop as a good sign. “Look, they’ve printed fewer cards!” they say. But context is key. Demand was already tapering off for sets like Temporal Forces and Stellar Crown. It wasn’t until the Pokémon TCG Pocket boom in late 2024 that interest resurged dramatically.
In short: the lower print count wasn’t due to restraint. It was a result of lagging demand—at least until the market reignited. And now, Pokémon simply cannot print fast enough to satisfy the appetite.
The Awakening: When Hype Turns to Regret
Let’s call it what it is—the market is experiencing what could soon be described as an “awakening.” Collectors, investors, and casual fans are pouring into the hobby in droves. But just as quickly as they arrived, they could leave.
The moment buyers realise they’ve overpaid—whether it’s a £400 Pikachu that drops to £250, or a new chase card that becomes commonplace—sentiment can shift sharply. The market is emotionally driven. And when disillusionment hits en masse, it won’t be pretty.
This isn’t to say the community isn’t strong or that Pokémon lacks staying power. But historically, when speculative bubbles grow too fast, they eventually burst. And 10.2 billion new cards a year could push us to that point.
Artificial Scarcity or Real Demand?
Another red flag: scarcity doesn’t always equal rarity. Despite those eye-watering production figures, it’s still common to hear people complain they can’t find product on shelves.
Is it truly sold out? Or is artificial scarcity being created—by retailers limiting stock, scalpers hoarding boxes, or the community overhyping availability?
Think of Umbreon from Prismatic Evolutions or the recent flood of Greninja SIRs—the pull rates may be low, but with so many packs being opened and so many singles hitting the secondary market, their “rarity” becomes questionable. Demand remains high, but long-term scarcity? That’s another story.
Prismatic Evolutions
Will Chase Cards Lose Their Impact?
When everything is a chase card, nothing really is.
Gone are the days when Base Set Charizard stood tall as the singular holy grail. Now, every set features multiple “must-haves” with flashy alt arts and limited pull rates. Moonbreon, Giratina V, Gengar VMAX, Roaring Moon, Pikachu EX—the list is endless.
Scarlet & Violet in particular has released an overwhelming number of chase cards. And while that’s thrilling for fans in the moment, it could dilute the sense of rarity and prestige in the long run.
The Case for Sealed Product
In this saturated market, sealed product may be one of the few safe bets left. Unlike singles, sealed boxes carry utility. They can be stored, displayed, opened in future livestreams, or used for nostalgic content. And with the rise of “rip-and-ship” culture and influencers hosting live pack openings, demand for sealed items is evolving.
That said, even sealed boxes aren’t immune. Reprints are still happening across most Scarlet & Violet sets, which could blunt their long-term potential if collectors don’t pace themselves.
Demand vs. Desire: Greninja vs. Sinistcha
Consider this: Greninja SIR and Sinistcha SIR have the exact same pull rate, yet Greninja sells for considerably more. Why? Popularity. Nostalgia. Perceived value. But this is emotional demand—not scarcity-driven value.
And when emotional demand fades (as it did with NFTs or fidget spinners), price corrections follow. The Greninja might feel like a modern Charizard, but that doesn’t make it immune to oversupply.
Twilight Masquerade
Are We Heading for a Pop?
Let’s be clear—Pokémon isn’t going to disappear overnight. The brand is stronger than ever, and its value extends far beyond cards. Pokémon video games, plushies, and merchandise continue to climb in popularity and price.
But the TCG specifically may be entering dangerous territory. If we reach 15 or 20 billion cards printed annually, collectors will have to ask themselves: am I here because I love Pokémon, or because I think these cards will rise in value?
For those who genuinely enjoy collecting, short-term price swings won’t matter. But if your motivation is purely financial, you may soon find the ground shifting beneath your feet.
Clive’s Final Thoughts
Pokémon remains a cultural titan. But like all hobbies that explode in popularity, it’s at risk of being overrun by its own success. The next five years will determine whether the Pokémon TCG matures into a healthy long-term market—or stumbles under the weight of overproduction and unrealistic expectations.
If you’re collecting because you love the franchise and want to engage with your favourite characters, you’re in good shape. But if you’re chasing quick profit, now might be a good time to rethink your strategy.
