There’s been a lot of buzz in the Pokémon collecting community lately about how well modern cards will hold their value over time. The hype is real—but so are the risks. As someone who’s been collecting, grading, and investing in cards for years, I’ve been keeping a close eye on where the market is heading, and I’ve got some thoughts to share.
Let’s break down the key factors influencing the long-term value of modern Pokémon cards.
1. Sealed Product Is Still the Safest Bet
If you’re looking for lower-risk ways to invest in the hobby, sealed product is still your best shot. Once a set goes out of print, the supply is fixed. And over time, demand tends to creep up—especially as unopened booster boxes become rarer.
That doesn’t mean you’ll double your money overnight. Some sets take years to appreciate significantly. But history shows that sealed booster boxes, especially from popular sets, nearly always rise in value given enough time.
Compare that to singles, where you’re essentially trying to time the market. One month a chase card is hot, the next it cools off. Without a set retail price or print limit, you’re rolling the dice.
2. Modern Pop Reports Are Huge—But It Doesn’t Always Matter
A lot of people worry about the population counts on modern chase cards. It’s true: modern hits like the Moonbreon (Umbreon VMAX) have tens of thousands of PSA 10s, and the numbers are still climbing. But here’s the thing: the card is still trading for over £1,000.
High populations aren’t an automatic death sentence for value—as long as demand remains strong. Pokémon is still growing. And some of today’s cards, even with huge pop reports, are becoming modern icons.
That said, it’s fair to assume that most modern cards won’t reach those heights. They’ll need a combination of nostalgia, standout artwork, and limited supply to become long-term winners.
3. Everyone’s Hoarding Sealed—That’s a Double-Edged Sword
It’s not just you stocking up on booster boxes. Entire cases of modern sets are sitting in basements and storage units all over the world. That creates a new kind of risk: oversupply.
Unlike vintage product—which was opened, played with, and tossed around—modern sealed is often handled like gold. Everyone’s storing it for future profit. Which means in 10 or 20 years, the supply might still outstrip demand for many sets.
That’s why it’s important to be selective. Don’t just hoard every new release. Focus on sets with low print runs, strong chase cards, or lasting popularity. 151 and Evolving Skies, for example, have long-term potential because of their nostalgic and aesthetic appeal.
4. Grading Is More Common Than Ever—And That Changes Everything
Back in the day, pulling a card and tossing it in a binder was normal. Now? Most collectors sleeve up hits instantly and send them off to PSA, Beckett, or ACE.
That’s part of why the pop counts are so high today. And it’s also why graded 10s from the modern era won’t carry the same premium as vintage. In the ’90s, a PSA 10 meant surviving rough handling and poor storage. Now it just means you pulled the card clean and sleeved it fast.
This shift doesn’t mean there’s no value in grading modern cards. But it does mean you need to be realistic about how many mint-condition copies exist—and how easily new ones could enter the market.
5. Will Kids of Today Want These Cards in 20 Years? Probably.
A big part of why vintage Pokémon is so valuable today is nostalgia. People who grew up with Base Set and Jungle are now adults with disposable income—and they’re fueling the market.
There’s every reason to believe the same will happen with Sword & Shield and Scarlet & Violet collectors in the future. Today’s 10-year-olds will one day want the cards they grew up with. As long as Pokémon stays relevant (and there’s no sign of that changing), the nostalgia loop will keep turning.
The real question is: which cards will they care about most? That’s where artwork, rarity, and character popularity come into play.
6. Some Modern Singles Are Worth the Gamble—But Be Picky
There’s still money to be made flipping singles—especially if you can buy raw cards, grade them yourself, and hit 10s. But don’t mistake this for a guaranteed investment strategy.
Most singles will drop in price after the initial hype fades. But a few—like Giratina V, Magikarp, or Gengar VMAX—have already defied the odds. Strong artwork and fan-favorite Pokémon always have a shot at long-term growth.
If you’re buying singles to invest, focus on standout cards from already-popular sets. And try to buy during lulls, not peaks.
Paldea Evolved
7. This Isn’t Stocks—And That’s a Good Thing
If you’re here purely for the money, you’ll probably be disappointed. Pokémon cards are illiquid, inconsistent, and heavily sentiment-driven. But they’re also fun. They’re emotional. And for a lot of people, they mean something.
Yes, you could make more money in an index fund. But can your index fund take you back to being a kid again? Can it spark a conversation with your son or daughter, or a stranger at a card show?
I say, build your portfolio. But if you love the hobby—really love it—there’s room for Pokémon, too.
Clive’s Final Thoughts
Will modern Pokémon cards hold their value? Some will. Most won’t. But if you’re thoughtful with what you buy, aim for quality over quantity, and accept that this is a marathon—not a sprint—there’s real potential in this hobby.
My advice? Collect what you love, keep an eye on print runs, and don’t bet the house. Pokémon may have started as a kids’ game, but it’s become so much more—and it’s not going anywhere any time soon.
